Only listened to part 1 of 3, which covered Beethoven’s bio plus Symphonies 1 & 2.
Beethoven was a creative genius for sure; but also strikes me as an insufferable, arrogant, and uninterested in most other things in life besides his art. The story of his growing deafness, and the fact that he still composed some of the greatest music while mostly deaf, is fascinating. The Heiligenstadt Testament discusses some of his feelings of despair upon realizing his deafness was not going away but was getting worse, and how it made him feel like a fraud or at least a laughingstock. Tragic!
The format of lectures on the Symphonies themselves was off-putting to me, but mostly because I don’t have the musical vocabulary to understand what the lecturer is talking about. He was pretty entertaining – describing a section of music as sounding like something you would dance to when “a weevil was stuck in your undergarments” is a pretty funny line. But the symphony is only played in pieces, and those usually less than a minute, with lots of (mostly unintelligible to me) commentary in between. I think I’ll skip parts 2 & 3 and just get a copy of the Symphonies themselves to listen to.
If you want a story about Apollo, this isn’t it. It’s much more a story of Buzz’s journey through alcoholism and depression in the decades since his famous moonwalk.
His response is kind of understandable – his whole life, he always had big goals driving him. Fighter pilot, MIT PhD, astronaut training, then going to the Moon. But once you have walked on the Moon, what other goal can even come close? What do you do after accomplishing your dream? I’m not sure if Aldrin is satisfied yet, but I think he is on the right track with trying to inspire others to achieve similar goals (return of manned space travel, especially to Mars).
He tells that wherever he goes, people always tell him about where they were on the day he walked on the Moon. Buzz thought it was strange how consistently people felt the need to share. Then he realized what it meant – Apollo 11 had permanently inspired in some way virtually everyone who witnessed it. (I wasn’t alive yet; but I get choked up and a little teary-eyed thinking of the grandeur of it all, if that is even the right word…)
A good chunk of the latter part of the book is a lot of gushing over how great his (third) wife Lois Driggs Cannon is, and how she saved him from depression, etc. It’s all pretty cringe-worthy, since he and Lois divorced two years after this book was published, and he and his next flame apparently met and started their relationship during the book tour for this book that says so many great things about Lois…
Lois gets a backstory chapter or two, and for some reason the tale of her first husband stuck in my brain. Maybe because they were/are Mormon? He was kind of a “most likely to succeed” type in school, then launched a successful business career and family with by all accounts a charming wife. But he was always restless. He was unhappy with a series of great executive level jobs. He took the family on some wild adventures, RVing around Europe for one and river boating around Europe for the other. But he never found whatever could cure the restlessness. He eventually divorced Lois out of the blue. (At least according to Buzz’s account.) Anyway, seems kind of boring as write about it but I dunno…at my point in life approaching mid-life (“crisis” you might say) I kind of understand that restlessness: what’s the point of it all?
Anyway, enough about that. Some other interesting tidbits:
- Buzz was a big supporter of getting non-astronauts up in to space, particularly artists, poets, or songwriters who could convey the emotions better than pilots or engineers. The first time NASA tried this was … the Challenger mission. They ended up sending a teacher as the first civilian in space, but Buzz reports that at least at some level John Denver was considered for the post. I think post-Challenger, NASA got very gunshy about sending civilians up on dangerous journeys … too much potential backlash if things go wrong, with an huge downside of losing all public support.
- The Omega Speedmaster watch Buzz wore on the Moon was later stolen. The “Holy Grail” of Apollo collectors. Gotta be out there somewhere.
I’ve really been interested in this book for awhile, wondering if it might contain some insight on how to profit from/avoid pain from economic bubbles. (One bubble of particular interest to me is the ongoing Bitcoin/cryptocurrency bubble.) While I could tell the book had lots of good stuff and I did take lots of notes, it was kind of a slog to get through for some reason; and didn’t have much actionable intelligence. Basically, bubbles sometimes “happen for no good reason” (direct quote from the concluding chapter), and then they pop.
Bubble = “a situation in which news of price increases spur investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, and, in the process, amplifies stories that might justify the price increase and brings in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others’ successes and partly through a gambler’s excitement.”
- Big bubble factor is a public impression that a revolution is underway that will change everything (eg. Internet in late 90s; probably Bitcoin today)
- In Shiller’s analysis of large stock market bubbles around the world, the reason for large price increases that often get talked about in media don’t usually make logical sense and there is no actionable pattern. Sometimes there is a kind of bubble feedback going on: a bubble/crash exists only because people think that there is a temporary bubble/crash and want to ride/avoid it
- If we all knew perfectly what our own trading abilities were, there would be no trading: if you were below average, you would never trade because you know you lose most of the time; then the rest would have no one to trade with.
- Market price is by no means a “vote.” Most investors are just trying to follow the perceived “wisdom of the crowd”
- Short sale constraints (such as a limited supply and holders unwilling to lend shares) prolong bubbles, because “smart money” is unable sell down the price. Suggests to Policy makers that bubbles can be overcome by freer and more numerous markets. (Converse: less free, fewer markets = bubble breeder?)
- Higher CAPE can still yield good returns if interest rates low enough
- Ok, I guess there is something actionable: sometimes, you need to ignore pleasant fantasies and defend what you already have.
The setting is a fantasy world where, a long time ago, the bad guy won. The world is a heap of ashes; few trees or living things still exist. The Lord Ruler, immortal and omnipotent, rules from his palace of dark spiral towers. The aristocracy cruelly use and abuse the enslaved majority “skaa” population, who have little hope of change in the future.
There is magic in this world, called allomancy. Allomantic powers are hereditary and only available to those of aristocratic descent. Each power is linked to a certain metal, like bronze or tin, which is ingested in small quantities and then “burned” as needed to provide the user with specific superhuman abilities. Most allomancers are only able to use a single metal. But, rarely, a “mistborn” comes on the scene who is able to use them all.
Probably the most dramatic/cool of the allomantic powers is the “push” and “pull”, which turns the allomancer into something of a supermagnet able to reverse polarity at will. Essentially, this allows the mistborn to pretty much fly around, provided enough metal objects are sufficiently available in the nearby environment to use as anchors, either to push away from or pull oneself toward.
(The allomantic magic system is interesting, but very formulaic. I though back to Jonathan Strange – magic in that book is very vague, mysterious, and undefined; here in “Mistborn” is an opposite, well-defined and limited system. )
Vin is an orphan skaa teenage girl who ends up in a thieving crew, a risky business of scamming and stealing from the aristocracy. She ends up joining Kelsier, a crew boss turned Mistborn. Although hereditary, it usually takes a unique, stressful event to awaken allomantic powers in an individual — for Kelsier, he was captured in a failed job and sentenced to labor in the Mines of Hathsin until death, but his power awoke and he escaped. Now Kelsier has a plan to overthrow the Lord Ruler. Early on, the book has Kelsier assemble his team, Ocean’s Eleven style. Then they get to work on the plan, even though no one but Kelsier really believes they have a chance.
Kelsier realizes Vin is a mistborn like himself and sets about training her for the good fight. Later, she is given the task of impersonating a noble in order to infiltrate the series of balls attended by most of the aristocracy and dig up rumors and information that might be useful to the team. Along the way (gasp!) she ends up falling in love with a seemingly fair and change-minded young heir, Elend Venture.
I thought the author did a very good job with pacing. At the beginning, the reader is in the dark about the world itself, and bits and pieces are slowly revealed. Then, the mystery and revelations smoothly transition to the origin of the Lord Ruler – how did he go from Hero of the world to evil overlord?
- Turns out that there was a prophesied Hero of long ago, who undertook a journey to the “Well of Ascension” to do …. something …. which somehow stopped an evil called the Deepness from eating the world. Or something like that. Very vague. Well, anyway, one of his guides became very jealous, particularly because the guide was a Terrisman, which race had made and kept the prophecies whereas the Hero was a foreigner. Somehow the guide took the Hero’s place, and became the Lord Ruler.
- The Lord Ruler’s power is from a combination of allomancy and feruchemy. One character speculates that maybe the Well of Ascension granted allomancy itself, as it wasn’t present in the world prior to that. Feruchemy is a Terrisman skill similar to allomancy, but users are only able to “store up” their own strength or other abilities to use later by voluntarily becoming equally weak or impaired for an equal amount of time. Somehow the combination yields almost omnipotent power as well as effective immortality.
- Atium, the metal mined in Hathsin, is also a key part of … something. Part of the team’s plans involve stealing the Lord Ruler’s suspected large stash of atium, but as it turns out it can’t be found anywhere. It is implied that the Lord Ruler, evil as he is, was doing something to keep the Deepness at bay … perhaps using atium? If so, not a good setup for our friends in the near future, as Kelsier ends up destroying Hathsin and all atium production for several centuries.
- Kelsier’s plan, ultimately known only to him, was kind of unique. He thinks the only way the world stands a chance is if the skaa gain hope and rise up, and the best way to do that is to give them a martyr/savior to look to. He becomes that savior – builds up an almost-religion around himself, then challenges the Lord Ruler and is killed … which results in exactly the effect he intended.
Prison doesn’t sound too bad – just kind of a pointless state of limbo for the prisoners.
An account of the last few years of the Taiping Rebellion, with a focus on British involvement. Although sparked by a religious movement, the author characterizes the Taiping as a long-suppressed reaction of the majority Chinese to centuries of (mis)rule by the foreign Manchu invaders, ie. the Qing Dynasty. The Qing were ripe for overthrow and quite ineffectual by this point; their demise was postponed 50 years or so by two factors; first that the British (eventually) threw in their lot with the Qing against the Taiping on rather flimsy and biased reporting by just a few officials, and second that Zeng Guofan declined to take power for himself when he definitely could have done so.
British policy during this period flip-flopped or otherwise struggled to find a direction. Technically, they claimed to be neutral in the Chinese civil war … but at one point, they were fighting separately against both parties. British in Shanghai were defending against a Taiping assault while a British fleet attacked the Qing’s Taku forts and the Summer Palace at Beijing in the climax of what is now called the Second Opium War. Soon after, the British were persuaded by Frederick Bruce that the Taiping were up to no good and the only hope for stability in China would be to help the Qing stay afloat.
Many others, including historians today, believe the Taiping were on the road to victory and would have done alright, in spite of the somewhat crazy behavior of the founder, Hong Xiuquan. (Sidenote – not much on Hong Xiuquan’s rise or Taiping doctrine or society in this book; really just about the war. At one point though it said that Hong Xiuquan was claiming to be the new member of the Trinity, replacing the Holy Spirit…)
A fascinating character when thinking about what the Taiping might have turned into is Hong Rengan, Hong Xiuquan’s cousin. Long before his cousin’s visions, Hong Rengan was a Christian convert in Hong Kong and worked as an assistant to foreign missionaries. When the Taiping became ascendant, he was sent to his cousin with high hopes that “true Christianity” would replace the Taiping creole. At first things seemed to go better than their wildest dreams – Hong Xiuquan heartily welcomed his cousin and offered him the title of “Shield King” and responsibility as the foreign minister for the Taiping government. Hong Rengan had a grand plan of strong friendship and cooperation with Western powers in a bid jumpstart Chinese industry and technology, much like the reforms of the Meiji Restoration later in Japan. (Another sidenote – the author points out the Japan profited well by observing China’s problems – first by opening up to the West peacefully whereas the Chinese went kicking and screaming via Opium Wars; second by accelerating technological progress to catch up to the West whereas the Qing stagnated.) Despite his best efforts, Western perception of the Taiping went downhill and Hong Rengan’s plans were never to be.
Finally we have Zeng Guofan, the scholar-general. A Qing government official (though not a Manchu) and product of the examination system, he became a local militia leader in Hunan in the fight against the Taiping mainly because no one else at all was left to take the job. From the accounting in this book, he seemed very methodical in his leadership — he thought deeply about the problems at hand, devised a strategy with much careful deliberation, and then stuck to that strategy no matter what until the goal was achieved. He became something of a warlord and ignored direct orders from the Emperor when they went against his own strategy — not out of disloyalty, but because he knew that the Emperor didn’t know as much about the “situation on the ground” as he did. Anyway, at the end of the day, Zeng’s army conquered the Taiping capital of Nanjing, effectively killing the movement. He very well could have taken his army on to Beijing and toppled the severely weakened Qing, but did not. Perhaps something of a George Washington character (leaving after two terms instead of becoming King George) or maybe he just didn’t want to take on all the empire’s problems any longer.
Both Zeng, the other Qing, and the Taiping were very brutal in this conflict. Entire populations of cities, whether the Manchu district if conquered by Taiping, or everyone if conquered by Qing, were murdered upon their capture. Cannibalism became common in besieged cities and also in the countryside at large, being devasted by a decade of roving armies. Not a fun time to be alive.
Thoughts on stock trading from “Larry Livingston”, a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore, successful trader around the turn of the century.
- “Give up trying to catch the last eighth, or the first. These two are the most expensive eights in the world.” In other words, don’t buy too early (without a clear upward signal) and don’t sell too late.
- It’s more important to catch the big, market-wide bull/bear runs than the little fluctuations of an individual stock. I think of the “buy the dip” approach — this only works if you are in a bull market.
- Ease into positions. If you think you want 500 shares, start at 100 shares and see how the market goes. If it goes up 1%, then by the next 100 and wait again. Repeat until you have your whole position. Always have a -1% trailing stop in mind.
- Price doesn’t really matter – what you want to know is the “line of least resistance.”
- Maybe in our day and age, he would be a proponent of order book analysis?
- Traders must reverse the natural inclination of hope and fear.
- Hope when your stock is down that it will come back up, so you hold too long
- Fear when your stock is up that it will go down, so you sell out too soon
- Must change to:
- Hope when your stock is up – hope it keeps rising; don’t sell winners too soon
- Fear when your stock is down – fear it could drop even lower; don’t hang on to losers
- Tips are worthless — realize you are being manipulated.
- Towards the end of the book, lots of stories about market manipulation that didn’t seem very applicable to us little fish, except to recognize such things happening amongst the whales.
- If you get to be a whale, remember that liquidity matters.
Listened to another Great Courses sweeping history series during my commute. Plenty of interesting stuff, but I admit I got kind of lost between the Han/Song/Ming etc. I think I just don’t have the necessary framework. Plus maybe learning some Chinese characters would help with visualizing different people’s names in my mind and actually remembering them.
Anyway, three takeaways:
- History is always in flux. China in particular is a series of high points and low points, with frequent takeovers by nomadic invaders like the Jurchen, Mongol, Manchu. Yet through it all, what remained was still China; albeit changed somewhat by each conqueror. Still, though, Chinese identity is linked to the Han Dynasty, back in 200 BC, and not to some plains people origin. A testament to Chinese cultural superiority? Or just that there are so many of them? (Yes, a relatively high Chinese population relative to surrounding tribes and the world in general has been a constant feature throughout history.)
- To continue with the above, China is currently emerging from an anomalous period (200+ years) of backwardness and is regaining its usual position at the head of world culture and leadership. Kind of exciting.
- The story of the Tai Ping movement really caught my interest and I plan to read more about it. The founder read a few Christian missionary tracts (but never the Bible), had a vision and claimed he was the brother of Jesus. Was a very charismatic leader and attracted millions of followers to a strict, fanatic lifestyle for many years and into a war. In some ways (except the war part and some details of course), it seems similar to Joseph Smith and the rise of Mormonism going on at about the same time.
The OnOff star is a mystery – a normal sun for around 40 years, then it turns off for the next 200, on a predictable cycle. Remarkably, intelligent life exists on the system’s only planet – the Spiders, a civilization on the cusp of a technological revolution and spaceflight. This draws the attention of two groups, both of which send fleets. The Qeng Ho are a loosely affiliated group of traders, and the Emergent are a newly risen militaristic civilization, about which little is known.
The Qeng Ho derive their trader identity from Pham Nuwen, himself a native of a medieval world and taken in by a group of early Qeng Ho refugees. He quickly learns their ways and marvels at the speedy rise and fall of civilizations across the inhabited worlds. This cycle is very rapid indeed to traders hibernating in cryosleep for hundreds of years at a time, while their ships travel at slower than light speeds to their next destination. He figures that the traders are perfectly positioned to try to ameliorate the suffering of failed civilizations, as well as preserve the best technology produced by civilizations at their peak. The Qeng Ho freely broadcast some of their knowledge continuously, as a way to bootstrap fallen civs back to the top. They strive to build up civs back to prosperity, because it is a good ideal itself and also (more importantly?) because it sets up a good market for trading.
But Pham sees a way to have more – he envisions the Qeng Ho itself as an interstellar governing empire, with ability to prevent civilization collapse in the first place. As he builds up support for his ideas, he calls for a meeting of Qeng Ho at a place called Brisgo Gap. Just as he is about to clinch victory, he is betrayed by his wife, Sura. (While Pham has been traveling and thus is still in his prime, Sura who managed things at home, is many centuries old by now, and many of his descendants are physically older than Pham. Weird.) She opposes him because … “it’ll never work! You’d need an army of loving slaves!” (groan … that’s not a reason! And such lame forced foreshadowing…) Pham is forced into exile – put into a ship bound for a target several hundred lightyears away, and he fades from history. An incognito Pham may or not end up in the Qeng Ho expedition to the OnOff star (spoiler: he does!), still bent on achieving his empire one way or another…
Ok, so the Emergents are Not Very Nice. They co-opted a brain virus to serve as a form of mind control, called Focus. The Focused individuals can be tuned to a specific set of tasking, and they obsessively perform their tasks with superhuman attention and ability. For instance, a key character in the story is a Focused translator of the Spider language. Coupled with traditional computer systems, Focus gives the Emergents effectively all the sought-for benefits of nearly unlimited AI, except without the “A” part I guess. And only at the cost of mental enslavement of many individuals! Most of the non-Focused Emergents serve in roles managing the Focused chattel.
When the Qeng Ho and Emergent expeditions meet in the OnOff system, it’s not long before the Qeng Ho are double-crossed, mostly afflicted with the Focus virus, and sneak-attacked. When it’s all done, all the ships on both sides are incapacitated and only a few habitats and supplies remain out in L1 orbit. Emergents and Qeng Ho are forced to live and work together for survival, although the Qeng Ho are clearly the conquered, and the morally bankrupt, manipulative Emergent leader Tomas Nau takes charge.
The survivors strategy is to “lurk” out in space, and wait for the rapidly progressing Spider civilization to mature to the point where the spacers can reveal themselves and receive help (Qeng Ho: by trading! Emergents: no, by force of course) from a capable industrial base in fixing up their ships. The OnOff star flares back to life shortly after the Qeng Ho-Emergent battle.
When the OnOff star turns back on, its solar output is extremely elevated for a short (a few weeks or months? years?) duration. This turns the Spider planet into a fireball, destroying most of what was created by the previous generation. The Spiders themselves stay safe, however, as they retreated two centuries ago to hibernation (ha! just like the spacers on their long voyages!) in their deep underground shelters, the “deepnesses,” when the star turned off and air-freezing temperatures ensued.
Much like Vinge did in the previous book, the Spider’s story is told in alternating sequence with the spacers; and although quite alien in ways they also seem very familiar and even … lovable? Yes. Lovable, monstrous, giant spiders. Sherkaner Underhill is a Spider technological genius who guides most of his civilization’s progress, including a determination to find a way to live, awake, right through the Dark. As the spacers observe Spider progress from their far-away orbit, they are able to subtlety alter events by injecting data at opportune times into the Spider computer networks. <spoiler>In a twist, Sherkaner catches on eventually that aliens are out there, manipulating things, and sets up a great “counterlurk” — while everyone thinks he’s gone a little bit senile, he and his team secretly gain control over the spacer systems via the Focused translators, and in the end avert Tomas Nau’s war of conquest. Pham also sees the light and realizes that even his dream of empire is not worth the moral price of Focus slavery – now he works out a plan to free the Focuses, first in the OnOff system but with plans at the end of the book to carry on the fight at the Emergent homeworlds.</spoiler>
Definitely a theme of the rise and fall of civilizations going on in this book. First there’s the Qeng Ho’s observations of the inevitable fleeting nature of human governments, when viewed on cosmic timescales. (This reminded me of a similar treatment in “House of Suns“.) Then there are the Spiders, forced to rebuild their own world anew with each lighting of the OnOff star.
I sort of liked the “adventure” parts but the philosophy was pretty much lost on me. Recommend skipping unless you are an English undergrad…
Eugene Henderson is born into wealth, but by his forties/fifties he is frustrated with a lack of purpose. He thinks he might want to be a doctor; his wife humiliates him by laughing at such a dream at his age. He has a chance to accompany a friend to Africa and feels like there, in the wild, he might find whatever he is looking for.
The first tribe he spends time with, the Arnui (sp? Audio book…), are friendly but suffering from a plague of frogs in their water cistern, which means they can’t give it to their cows. Henderson thinks that here is my chance, here is my purpose – to help these poor people. He had some experience with explosives in the war and so rigs up a bomb to kill the frogs. It does; but also breaks the cistern, making the Arnui’s problems infinitely worse.
He and his guide quickly make tracks, and end up in the tribe of the Wariri (sp?). They are kind of suspicious people, but during a rain ceremony he once again jumps in to “save the day” when the village strongman fails to budge the huge statue of their goddess Mumma. Henderson is a big, strong fellow and is able to move the statue with some effort. He didn’t know it beforehand, but this entitles him to be the Sungo, the rain king. He becomes friends with the actual king, Dafu, and becomes familiar with their customs: when a king first shows signs of weakness, he is murdered by his harem. The body is dragged to the bush and left, but kept under observation. No beasts are allowed to eat the corpse, except for a lion cub. The cub is marked and released – this cub is said to now possess the soul of the dead king. The Sungo gets to be the new king, and after some period of time his duty is to capture the now grown up cub and keep him as a pet of sorts.
Well, King Dafu captures a different lion in his first attempt, and decides to keep it. He therefore is now facing insurrection as all other lions besides the old king are considered to be magical troublemakers. Dafu admires lions in general; and embarks on program of familiarizing Henderson with the lion in an up close and personal manner, so that he takes on some lion qualities – nobility, confidence. Soon, the actual lion Dafu is supposed to capture his spotted, but Dafu dies in the capture attempt (might have been sabotage by his enemies).
Henderson is held captive until his “coronation” but wisely escapes this death trap. Before he goes, he swipes the lion cub designated for Dafu and flies it back to the states. He resolves to become a doctor after all.
What’s the meaning here? Maybe to follow your dream. Maybe it doesn’t really matter. One quote from near the end: “What is the universe? Big. And what are we? Little. So I might as well stay at home, where my wife loves me. Or, if she is only pretending to love me, maybe that’s good enough, too.”